Generally, Jubilee will still win the election.
I am foreseeing that the final results might end up at 52 percent and 47 percent or thereabouts for Uhuru and Raila, respectively.
Most people have made up their minds by now and this is reflected in the percentage of undecided persons – 12.
If the opinion polls give a fair representation of what is happening on the ground, the contest between Jubilee and NASA is stiff. But Jubilee is still ahead, because it has put a lot of effort into its political campaigns, which I think will give them another two or three percent for their victory.
From where I stand, I cannot foresee a runoff, because I am not seeing the rest of the Presidential candidates garnering more than one percent. Jubilee will get between 51-52 percent. The last efforts made by Jubilee and NASA can have some impact in the election and so a slight mistake from either side can cost them a lot. According to how the two camps have been conducting their campaigns of late, even if NASA were to get more votes, it is unlikely that they will overtake Jubilee.
Jubilee has already consolidated their bases and we are yet to see their last-minute practical on infiltrating the NASA strongholds.
Some of the criticism raised by NASA on the Jubilee government sells strongest in the alliance’s strongholds, such as the high cost of living. But the issues do not sell so well in the Jubilee strongholds such as Rift Valley, especially on the issue of the maize shortage. The issue consolidates in NASA strongholds.
Jubilee has tried, but I think they are focussing more on individuals rather than on what they have achieved. My advice to Jubilee is that they should talk less about Raila and ‘vitendawili’ and highlight the projects that they have accomplished in various parts of the country. They should focus on achievements like infrastructure, provision of clean water and employment.
Jubilee has challenges on youth unemployment. If they are going to package that strategy, and the President signs that Bill of allowing graduates to get internships, he will attract more support from the youth.
Their manifestos – which Jubilee launched yesterday and NASA is launching today – will have less impact on the voters as already a good percentage have made up their minds on who to vote for.
Kones is former MP for Konoin